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» JAWABAN UAS STATISTIKA SOSIAL 2019
02.13.00
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TABEL PENOLONG ! |
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no. |
tahun |
BI Rate (Y) |
Inflasi (X) |
XY |
X² |
Y² |
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1 |
2003 |
8.3 |
5.1 |
42.33 |
26.01 |
68.89 |
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2 |
2004 |
7.4 |
6.4 |
47.36 |
40.96 |
54.76 |
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3 |
2005 |
12.8 |
17.1 |
218.88 |
292.41 |
163.84 |
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4 |
2006 |
9.8 |
6.6 |
64.68 |
43.56 |
96.04 |
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5 |
2007 |
8 |
6.6 |
52.8 |
43.56 |
64 |
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6 |
2008 |
10.8 |
11.1 |
119.88 |
123.21 |
116.64 |
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7 |
2009 |
6.5 |
2.8 |
18.2 |
7.84 |
42.25 |
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8 |
2010 |
6.6 |
7 |
46.2 |
49 |
43.56 |
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9 |
2011 |
5 |
3.8 |
19 |
14.44 |
25 |
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10 |
2012 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
20.64 |
18.49 |
23.04 |
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11 |
2013 |
7.2 |
8.4 |
60.48 |
70.56 |
51.84 |
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12 |
2014 |
6.9 |
8.4 |
57.96 |
70.56 |
47.61 |
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13 |
2015 |
7.1 |
3.4 |
24.14 |
11.56 |
50.41 |
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14 |
2016 |
5.9 |
3 |
17.7 |
9 |
34.81 |
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Σ (SUM) = |
107.1 |
94 |
810.25 |
821.16 |
882.69 |
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UJI -F (LILIE FORCE) ; |
UJI LINEARITAS ; |
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(Jkreg α) = |
(ΣY)²/n = |
819.315 |
JUMLAH KUADRAT REGRESI A |
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b =( n.ΣXY-ΣX.ΣY)/n.ΣX²-(ΣX)²
= |
0.479694 |
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α = (ΣY - b.ΣX)/n = |
4.4292 |
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[Jkregα(b/α)] =
b.((ΣXY -(ΣX.ΣY)/n) |
43.72407 |
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Jkres = ΣY² -
{Jkregα(b/α) + Jkreg(α)} = |
19.65093 |
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RJKreg(α) = |
Jkreg(α) = |
819.315 |
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RATA-RATA JUMLAH KUADRAT REGRESI |
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RJKreg(b/α) =
Jkreg(b/α) = |
43.72407 |
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RJKres = Jkres / n-2 = |
1.637578 |
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F-hitung = RJKreg(b/α) / RJKres = |
26.70046 |
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F-tabel(1-5%) (1,n-2) lihat tabel
uji-f |
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F-tabel (0.95)(1,14-2) |
atau F(0.95)(1,12) = |
3.885 |
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Jadi, F-hitung >
F-tabel = 26.70046 > 3.885 ; maka, Ho ditolak ; sehingga regresi linear
sederhana dapat digunakan untuk mempredikti tingkat inflasi terhadap BI Rate |
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bisa juga, data tersebut
bersifat linear |
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Regresi Linear Sederhana ; Y = α + bX = |
Y = 4.4292 + 0.479694X |
; Persamaan regresi
linear sederhana |
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statistika parametrik (uji-t/t-test)
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r = (n(ΣXY)-(ΣX.ΣY))/((√(n.ΣX²-(ΣX)²)(n.ΣY²-(ΣY)²))
= |
1276.1 |
2660.24 |
887.25 |
0.830618 |
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; Korelasi bersifat
Superior, yaitu berkisar 0.76 sampai 0.99 |
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1536.326 |
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hypothesis : Ho : Tidak terdapat
pengaruh besar (signifikan) kenaikat tingkat suku bunga terhadap laju inflasi
di indonesia. |
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Ha : terdapat
pengaruh besar kenaikan tingkat suku bunga BI terhadap laju inflasi di
indonesia. |
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t-hitung = r√n-2/√1-(r)²
= |
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t-tabel (α/2)(n-2)
= |
t(0.05/2)(14-2) = |
2.179 |
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Lihat tabel uji-t ; |
t(0,025)(12) |
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Jadi, t-hitung >
t-tabel = 5.167248 > 2.179 ; maka, Ho tolak ; sehingga terdapat pengaruh
besar (signifikan) antara tingkat suku bunga BI terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia
sejak tahun 2003 sampai 2016 |
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